UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 Chapter 1: Controlled substances and other trace gases Scenarios from Archie McCulloch (Marbury Techn. Cons.), John Daniel (NOAA/AL), Steve Montzka (NOAA/CMDL), and Guus Velders (RIVM/LLO), September 21, 2001 (Version 3) Address Guus Velders, Air Research Lab. RIVM, PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands Phone: +31-30-2742331; Fax: +31-30-2287531; Email: Guus.Velders@rivm.nl Calculations performed by Archie McCulloch, John Daniel, Steve Montzka, and Guus Velders Mixing ratios given in parts per trillion by mole (pmol/mol). Original files: CFC_11_v3.xls, CFC_12_v5.xls, CFC_113_v3.xls, CFC_114_v1.xls, CFC_115_v1.xls, CTC_v3.xls, MethylChloroform_v5.xls, MethylBromide_v7.xls, Methylchloride_v4.xls, Halon_1211_v5.xls, Halon_1301_v3.xls, HCFC_141b_v3.xls, HCFC_142b_v3.xls, HCFC_22_v3.xls mx1_A1_v4b replaces all previous versions of mx1_A1_v4 and has revised CH3Br data... Scenario A1: Best guess scenario time CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl4 CH3CCl3 HCFC-22 HC-141b HC-142b H1211 H1202 H1301 H2402 CH3Br CH3Cl *** 1950 0.39 5.81 0.19 1.13 0.00 34.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.02 483.42 1951 0.64 7.29 0.24 1.37 0.00 35.56 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.02 483.42 1952 0.98 8.92 0.30 1.62 0.00 36.74 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.01 484.95 1953 1.47 10.59 0.37 1.87 0.00 38.08 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.04 487.14 1954 2.14 12.47 0.44 2.13 0.00 39.55 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.08 489.79 1955 2.96 14.59 0.53 2.39 0.00 41.16 0.05 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.09 492.78 1956 3.98 16.97 0.62 2.64 0.00 42.91 0.19 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.13 496.07 1957 5.23 19.74 0.74 2.89 0.00 44.79 0.41 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.17 499.59 1958 6.62 22.88 0.86 3.14 0.00 46.79 0.72 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.21 503.29 1959 7.89 26.16 1.01 3.39 0.00 48.90 1.03 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.23 507.11 1960 9.16 29.81 1.18 3.63 0.00 51.13 1.44 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.26 510.97 1961 10.86 34.18 1.37 3.88 0.00 53.48 1.93 1.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.31 514.82 1962 13.06 39.08 1.59 4.12 0.00 55.92 2.39 2.04 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.35 518.58 1963 15.83 44.73 1.83 4.38 0.00 58.43 3.10 2.52 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.39 522.19 1964 19.23 51.39 2.12 4.64 0.00 61.00 3.81 3.10 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.41 525.60 1965 23.26 59.14 2.44 4.90 0.00 63.63 4.59 3.82 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.44 528.77 1966 27.81 67.87 2.82 5.17 0.01 66.16 5.70 4.65 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.48 531.68 1967 32.88 77.64 3.24 5.45 0.02 68.60 7.50 5.66 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.53 534.31 1968 38.60 88.65 3.73 5.75 0.05 70.94 9.96 6.86 0.00 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.57 536.66 1969 45.09 101.00 4.29 6.05 0.08 73.20 12.81 8.33 0.00 0.19 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 7.62 538.73 1970 52.62 114.74 4.93 6.37 0.12 75.36 15.96 10.11 0.00 0.21 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 7.66 540.55 1971 61.15 129.72 5.66 6.70 0.17 77.45 18.78 11.96 0.00 0.23 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 7.71 542.12 1972 70.45 145.79 6.50 7.04 0.24 79.46 22.25 13.95 0.00 0.25 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02 7.75 543.48 1973 80.91 163.30 7.47 7.39 0.31 81.39 26.88 16.06 0.00 0.26 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.02 7.80 544.65 1974 92.89 182.68 8.57 7.76 0.40 83.25 32.79 18.47 0.00 0.28 0.09 0.00 0.03 0.03 7.88 545.64 1975 105.99 203.64 9.84 8.14 0.50 85.04 39.20 21.17 0.00 0.30 0.12 0.00 0.04 0.04 7.93 546.48 1976 118.37 223.80 11.29 8.54 0.62 86.76 44.55 23.70 0.00 0.31 0.16 0.01 0.06 0.05 7.98 547.18 1977 130.80 243.23 12.95 8.95 0.76 88.42 51.91 26.57 0.00 0.32 0.21 0.01 0.09 0.06 8.02 547.78 1978 142.41 261.82 14.85 9.38 0.92 90.02 61.18 29.74 0.00 0.33 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.08 8.10 548.28 1979 152.88 278.94 17.03 9.82 1.11 91.55 70.81 33.16 0.00 0.35 0.34 0.01 0.18 0.09 8.15 548.70 1980 162.26 295.85 19.52 10.28 1.33 93.03 78.53 36.72 0.00 0.36 0.42 0.01 0.24 0.11 8.20 549.05 1981 170.91 312.80 22.38 10.76 1.58 94.45 85.91 40.48 0.00 0.37 0.52 0.01 0.31 0.12 8.28 549.34 1982 179.32 329.43 25.49 11.23 1.86 95.82 92.37 44.33 0.00 0.41 0.63 0.01 0.39 0.14 8.33 549.59 1983 187.34 346.35 28.70 11.68 2.18 97.13 96.55 47.97 0.00 0.43 0.75 0.02 0.49 0.16 8.42 549.79 1984 195.90 363.79 32.27 12.14 2.53 98.40 100.47 52.02 0.00 0.47 0.88 0.02 0.61 0.18 8.47 549.96 1985 205.27 382.18 36.72 12.64 2.91 99.62 105.68 56.32 0.00 0.51 1.04 0.02 0.74 0.20 8.55 550.10 1986 215.04 400.92 41.98 13.17 3.30 100.79 110.25 60.63 0.00 0.53 1.22 0.02 0.89 0.22 8.64 550.22 1987 225.47 420.02 47.60 13.77 3.72 102.03 114.33 65.12 0.00 0.67 1.44 0.02 1.06 0.24 8.69 550.31 1988 236.53 439.11 53.79 14.37 4.15 103.35 118.50 69.77 0.00 0.82 1.69 0.02 1.25 0.26 8.77 550.39 1989 247.66 457.48 60.72 14.90 4.60 104.73 122.29 75.19 0.00 0.99 1.98 0.03 1.46 0.29 8.86 550.46 1990 256.34 474.07 67.97 15.36 5.06 105.67 124.91 81.33 0.00 1.24 2.27 0.03 1.66 0.31 8.95 550.51 1991 262.60 487.96 73.97 15.68 5.54 105.80 128.03 87.40 0.00 1.72 2.54 0.03 1.85 0.34 9.04 550.56 1992 267.37 500.21 78.27 15.85 6.04 105.53 128.81 93.62 0.02 2.42 2.79 0.03 1.98 0.36 9.13 550.60 1993 271.16 511.51 81.41 15.98 6.53 105.08 127.81 99.96 0.22 3.30 2.94 0.03 2.07 0.38 9.22 550.63 1994 271.17 518.67 82.93 16.09 7.02 104.46 119.43 105.90 0.88 4.24 3.10 0.04 2.17 0.40 9.31 550.65 1995 270.62 524.80 83.23 16.18 7.49 103.66 108.63 111.78 2.09 5.27 3.25 0.04 2.33 0.42 9.40 550.68 1996 269.53 529.99 83.15 16.24 7.91 102.70 97.86 117.54 3.78 6.36 3.40 0.04 2.46 0.43 9.49 550.69 1997 268.24 534.23 82.69 16.27 8.28 101.62 84.27 123.82 5.45 7.43 3.55 0.05 2.55 0.43 9.51 550.71 1998 266.63 537.39 82.60 16.30 8.58 100.47 70.45 129.23 7.09 8.51 3.69 0.05 2.64 0.43 9.52 550.72 1999 264.73 539.48 82.28 16.34 8.81 99.24 59.06 134.79 8.93 9.50 3.83 0.05 2.73 0.42 9.52 550.72 2000 262.64 540.48 81.70 16.38 8.97 97.94 49.81 140.15 10.81 10.61 3.97 0.05 2.82 0.41 9.31 550.72