UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 Chapter 1: Controlled substances and other trace gases Scenarios from Archie McCulloch (Marbury Techn. Cons.), John Daniel (NOAA/AL), Steve Montzka (NOAA/CMDL), and Guus Velders (RIVM/LLO), September 21, 2001 (Version 3) Address Guus Velders, Air Research Lab. RIVM, PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands Phone: +31-30-2742331; Fax: +31-30-2287531; Email: Guus.Velders@rivm.nl Calculations performed by Archie McCulloch, John Daniel, Steve Montzka, and Guus Velders Mixing ratios given in parts per trillion by mole (pmol/mol). Original files: CFC_11_v3.xls, CFC_12_v5.xls, CFC_113_v3.xls, CFC_114_v1.xls, CFC_115_v1.xls, CTC_v3.xls, MethylChloroform_v5.xls, MethylBromide_v7.xls, Methylchloride_v4.xls, Halon_1211_v5.xls, Halon_1301_v3.xls, HCFC_141b_v3.xls, HCFC_142b_v3.xls, HCFC_22_v3.xls mx1_A1_v4b replaces all previous versions of mx1_A1_v4 and has revised CH3Br data... Scenario A1: Best guess scenario time CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl4 CH3CCl3 HCFC-22 HC-141b HC-142b H1211 H1202 H1301 H2402 CH3Br CH3Cl 2001 260.50 541.22 81.07 16.40 9.04 96.71 41.95 147.80 12.97 12.32 4.07 0.04 2.90 0.41 9.26 550.72 2002 258.20 541.94 80.38 16.42 9.09 95.53 35.43 154.81 15.39 14.01 4.13 0.04 2.97 0.40 9.05 550.72 2003 255.78 542.66 79.63 16.42 9.12 94.39 30.03 161.25 18.01 15.67 4.16 0.03 3.04 0.39 9.00 550.72 2004 253.26 541.87 78.83 16.42 9.14 93.30 25.55 167.15 20.80 17.31 4.16 0.03 3.11 0.38 8.85 550.72 2005 250.66 541.09 78.01 16.41 9.15 92.25 21.85 172.56 23.71 18.91 4.14 0.02 3.17 0.37 8.81 550.72 2006 248.00 538.51 77.16 16.39 9.16 90.33 18.77 176.23 26.34 20.29 4.09 0.02 3.23 0.36 8.53 550.72 2007 245.22 535.96 76.32 16.37 9.16 88.48 16.19 178.57 28.74 21.49 4.03 0.02 3.28 0.35 8.46 550.72 2008 242.35 531.43 75.49 16.34 9.16 85.59 14.05 179.91 30.90 22.54 3.95 0.01 3.32 0.34 8.45 550.72 2009 239.28 526.94 74.67 16.31 9.16 82.81 12.27 180.51 32.87 23.47 3.86 0.01 3.37 0.32 8.44 550.72 2010 236.07 522.50 73.87 16.27 9.15 80.13 10.79 180.55 34.65 24.28 3.76 0.01 3.40 0.31 8.44 550.72 2011 232.72 517.30 73.04 16.24 9.15 77.11 9.48 180.20 36.26 25.01 3.66 0.01 3.44 0.30 8.44 550.72 2012 229.23 512.15 72.18 16.20 9.14 74.20 8.32 178.46 37.44 25.52 3.54 0.00 3.46 0.29 8.44 550.72 2013 225.62 507.06 71.34 16.16 9.14 71.40 7.31 175.73 38.28 25.84 3.43 0.00 3.49 0.28 8.44 550.72 2014 221.92 502.01 70.51 16.12 9.13 68.71 6.43 172.34 38.82 26.03 3.31 0.00 3.51 0.27 8.44 550.72 2015 218.15 497.02 69.68 16.07 9.13 66.11 5.67 168.54 39.14 26.12 3.19 0.00 3.52 0.26 8.44 550.72 2016 214.34 492.07 68.87 16.03 9.12 63.62 4.96 164.50 39.27 26.12 3.07 0.00 3.54 0.25 8.24 550.72 2017 210.49 487.18 68.06 15.98 9.12 61.22 4.31 159.42 39.02 25.93 2.95 0.00 3.55 0.24 8.19 550.72 2018 206.62 482.33 67.26 15.93 9.11 58.91 3.73 153.70 38.48 25.60 2.83 0.00 3.55 0.23 8.18 550.72 2019 202.74 477.53 66.48 15.89 9.10 56.69 3.21 147.59 37.71 25.17 2.71 0.00 3.56 0.22 8.17 550.72 2020 198.88 472.78 65.70 15.84 9.10 54.55 2.75 141.32 36.78 24.67 2.59 0.00 3.56 0.21 8.17 550.72 2021 195.02 468.07 64.93 15.79 9.09 52.49 2.35 135.05 35.73 24.11 2.48 0.00 3.55 0.20 8.17 550.72 2022 191.19 463.42 64.17 15.74 9.09 50.51 2.00 128.68 34.56 23.50 2.37 0.00 3.55 0.19 8.17 550.72 2023 187.39 458.81 63.42 15.69 9.08 48.60 1.70 122.37 33.31 22.84 2.26 0.00 3.54 0.18 8.17 550.72 2024 183.63 454.24 62.68 15.64 9.07 46.77 1.44 116.20 32.00 22.17 2.16 0.00 3.53 0.18 8.17 550.72 2025 179.90 449.72 61.95 15.59 9.07 45.01 1.22 110.25 30.68 21.49 2.05 0.00 3.52 0.17 8.17 550.72 2026 176.22 445.25 61.22 15.54 9.06 43.31 1.03 104.55 29.35 20.81 1.95 0.00 3.51 0.16 8.17 550.72 2027 172.59 440.82 60.51 15.49 9.06 41.67 0.87 99.13 28.04 20.13 1.86 0.00 3.50 0.15 8.17 550.72 2028 169.01 436.43 59.80 15.44 9.05 40.10 0.73 94.02 26.76 19.47 1.77 0.00 3.48 0.15 8.17 550.72 2029 165.49 432.09 59.10 15.39 9.04 38.59 0.61 89.21 25.52 18.82 1.68 0.00 3.46 0.14 8.17 550.72 2030 162.01 427.79 58.41 15.34 9.04 37.13 0.51 84.70 24.33 18.19 1.59 0.00 3.44 0.13 8.17 550.72 2031 158.60 423.53 57.73 15.29 9.03 35.73 0.43 80.50 23.20 17.59 1.51 0.00 3.42 0.13 8.17 550.72 2032 155.24 419.32 57.05 15.24 9.03 34.38 0.36 76.39 22.07 16.98 1.44 0.00 3.40 0.12 8.17 550.72 2033 151.94 415.14 56.38 15.19 9.02 33.09 0.30 72.43 20.96 16.37 1.36 0.00 3.38 0.12 8.17 550.72 2034 148.70 411.01 55.72 15.14 9.01 31.84 0.25 68.64 19.89 15.78 1.29 0.00 3.35 0.11 8.17 550.72 2035 145.52 406.92 55.07 15.09 9.01 30.64 0.21 65.05 18.85 15.20 1.22 0.00 3.33 0.10 8.17 550.72 2036 142.40 402.87 54.43 15.04 9.00 29.48 0.17 61.65 17.86 14.63 1.16 0.00 3.30 0.10 8.17 550.72 2037 139.34 398.87 53.79 14.99 9.00 28.37 0.14 58.46 16.92 14.08 1.10 0.00 3.28 0.10 8.17 550.72 2038 136.34 394.90 53.16 14.94 8.99 27.30 0.12 55.47 16.02 13.55 1.04 0.00 3.25 0.09 8.17 550.72 2039 133.39 390.97 52.54 14.89 8.98 26.27 0.10 52.68 15.18 13.05 0.98 0.00 3.22 0.09 8.17 550.72 2040 130.51 387.08 51.93 14.84 8.98 25.28 0.08 50.08 14.38 12.56 0.93 0.00 3.19 0.08 8.17 550.72 2041 127.68 383.23 51.32 14.79 8.97 24.32 0.06 47.67 13.64 12.10 0.88 0.00 3.16 0.08 8.17 550.72 2042 124.91 379.41 50.72 14.74 8.97 23.40 0.05 45.43 12.94 11.65 0.83 0.00 3.13 0.07 8.17 550.72 2043 122.20 375.64 50.13 14.69 8.96 22.52 0.04 43.02 12.23 11.19 0.78 0.00 3.10 0.07 8.17 550.72 2044 119.54 371.90 49.54 14.65 8.95 21.67 0.03 40.53 11.51 10.73 0.74 0.00 3.07 0.07 8.17 550.72 2045 116.94 368.20 48.96 14.60 8.95 20.85 0.03 38.03 10.80 10.26 0.70 0.00 3.04 0.06 8.17 550.72 2046 114.39 364.54 48.39 14.55 8.94 20.07 0.02 35.57 10.10 9.80 0.66 0.00 3.01 0.06 8.17 550.72 2047 111.89 360.91 47.82 14.50 8.94 19.31 0.02 33.17 9.42 9.35 0.62 0.00 2.98 0.06 8.17 550.72 2048 109.45 357.32 47.26 14.45 8.93 18.58 0.01 30.86 8.77 8.91 0.59 0.00 2.95 0.06 8.17 550.72 2049 107.06 353.76 46.71 14.40 8.92 17.88 0.01 28.65 8.15 8.48 0.55 0.00 2.92 0.05 8.17 550.72 2050 104.72 350.24 46.16 14.36 8.92 17.21 0.01 26.56 7.55 8.06 0.52 0.00 2.88 0.05 8.17 550.72 2051 102.43 346.76 45.62 14.31 8.91 16.56 0.01 24.59 6.98 7.67 0.49 0.00 2.85 0.05 8.17 550.72 2052 100.19 343.31 45.09 14.26 8.91 15.93 0.01 22.74 6.45 7.28 0.46 0.00 2.82 0.05 8.17 550.72 2053 98.00 339.89 44.56 14.21 8.90 15.33 0.01 21.01 5.95 6.92 0.44 0.00 2.79 0.04 8.17 550.72 2054 95.85 336.51 44.04 14.17 8.90 14.75 0.00 19.39 5.48 6.57 0.41 0.00 2.76 0.04 8.17 550.72 2055 93.75 333.16 43.53 14.12 8.89 14.20 0.00 17.89 5.04 6.23 0.39 0.00 2.72 0.04 8.17 550.72 2056 91.70 329.85 43.02 14.07 8.88 13.66 0.00 16.49 4.63 5.91 0.37 0.00 2.69 0.04 8.17 550.72 2057 89.69 326.56 42.51 14.02 8.88 13.14 0.00 15.20 4.25 5.61 0.35 0.00 2.66 0.04 8.17 550.72 2058 87.72 323.31 42.02 13.98 8.87 12.65 0.00 14.00 3.90 5.32 0.33 0.00 2.63 0.03 8.17 550.72 2059 85.80 320.10 41.52 13.93 8.87 12.17 0.00 12.89 3.57 5.04 0.31 0.00 2.60 0.03 8.17 550.72 2060 83.92 316.91 41.04 13.89 8.86 11.71 0.00 11.86 3.26 4.78 0.29 0.00 2.56 0.03 8.17 550.72 2061 82.07 313.76 40.56 13.84 8.85 11.27 0.00 10.91 2.98 4.53 0.27 0.00 2.53 0.03 8.17 550.72 2062 80.27 310.64 40.08 13.79 8.85 10.84 0.00 10.04 2.73 4.30 0.26 0.00 2.50 0.03 8.17 550.72 2063 78.51 307.55 39.62 13.75 8.84 10.44 0.00 9.23 2.49 4.07 0.24 0.00 2.47 0.03 8.17 550.72 2064 76.79 304.49 39.15 13.70 8.84 10.04 0.00 8.49 2.27 3.86 0.23 0.00 2.44 0.03 8.17 550.72 2065 75.10 301.46 38.69 13.66 8.83 9.66 0.00 7.81 2.07 3.66 0.21 0.00 2.41 0.02 8.17 550.72 2066 73.45 298.46 38.24 13.61 8.82 9.30 0.00 7.18 1.88 3.47 0.20 0.00 2.38 0.02 8.17 550.72 2067 71.84 295.49 37.79 13.56 8.82 8.95 0.00 6.60 1.72 3.28 0.19 0.00 2.34 0.02 8.17 550.72 2068 70.26 292.55 37.35 13.52 8.81 8.61 0.00 6.07 1.56 3.11 0.18 0.00 2.31 0.02 8.17 550.72 2069 68.72 289.64 36.92 13.47 8.81 8.29 0.00 5.58 1.42 2.95 0.17 0.00 2.28 0.02 8.17 550.72 2070 67.21 286.75 36.48 13.43 8.80 7.97 0.00 5.13 1.29 2.79 0.16 0.00 2.25 0.02 8.17 550.72 2071 65.74 283.90 36.06 13.39 8.79 7.67 0.00 4.71 1.17 2.65 0.15 0.00 2.22 0.02 8.17 550.72 2072 64.29 281.08 35.64 13.34 8.79 7.38 0.00 4.33 1.06 2.51 0.14 0.00 2.19 0.02 8.17 550.72 2073 62.88 278.28 35.22 13.30 8.78 7.10 0.00 3.98 0.97 2.38 0.13 0.00 2.16 0.02 8.17 550.72 2074 61.50 275.51 34.81 13.25 8.78 6.84 0.00 3.66 0.88 2.25 0.12 0.00 2.14 0.02 8.17 550.72 2075 60.15 272.77 34.40 13.21 8.77 6.58 0.00 3.36 0.79 2.13 0.12 0.00 2.11 0.01 8.17 550.72 2076 58.83 270.06 34.00 13.16 8.77 6.33 0.00 3.09 0.72 2.02 0.11 0.00 2.08 0.01 8.17 550.72 2077 57.53 267.37 33.60 13.12 8.76 6.09 0.00 2.84 0.65 1.91 0.10 0.00 2.05 0.01 8.17 550.72 2078 56.27 264.71 33.21 13.08 8.75 5.86 0.00 2.61 0.59 1.81 0.10 0.00 2.02 0.01 8.17 550.72 2079 55.03 262.07 32.82 13.03 8.75 5.64 0.00 2.39 0.54 1.72 0.09 0.00 1.99 0.01 8.17 550.72 2080 53.82 259.47 32.43 12.99 8.74 5.43 0.00 2.20 0.48 1.63 0.09 0.00 1.97 0.01 8.17 550.72 2081 52.64 256.88 32.06 12.95 8.74 5.22 0.00 2.02 0.44 1.54 0.08 0.00 1.94 0.01 8.17 550.72 2082 51.48 254.33 31.68 12.90 8.73 5.03 0.00 1.86 0.40 1.46 0.08 0.00 1.91 0.01 8.17 550.72 2083 50.35 251.80 31.31 12.86 8.72 4.84 0.00 1.71 0.36 1.38 0.07 0.00 1.89 0.01 8.17 550.72 2084 49.25 249.29 30.94 12.82 8.72 4.65 0.00 1.57 0.32 1.31 0.07 0.00 1.86 0.01 8.17 550.72 2085 48.16 246.81 30.58 12.77 8.71 4.48 0.00 1.44 0.29 1.24 0.06 0.00 1.83 0.01 8.17 550.72 2086 47.11 244.36 30.22 12.73 8.71 4.31 0.00 1.32 0.27 1.18 0.06 0.00 1.81 0.01 8.17 550.72 2087 46.07 241.92 29.87 12.69 8.70 4.15 0.00 1.22 0.24 1.12 0.06 0.00 1.78 0.01 8.17 550.72 2088 45.06 239.52 29.52 12.65 8.70 3.99 0.00 1.12 0.22 1.06 0.05 0.00 1.76 0.01 8.17 550.72 2089 44.07 237.13 29.18 12.61 8.69 3.84 0.00 1.03 0.20 1.00 0.05 0.00 1.73 0.01 8.17 550.72 2090 43.10 234.77 28.83 12.56 8.68 3.69 0.00 0.94 0.18 0.95 0.05 0.00 1.71 0.01 8.17 550.72 2091 42.15 232.44 28.50 12.52 8.68 3.55 0.00 0.87 0.16 0.90 0.04 0.00 1.68 0.01 8.17 550.72 2092 41.23 230.13 28.16 12.48 8.67 3.42 0.00 0.80 0.14 0.85 0.04 0.00 1.66 0.01 8.17 550.72 2093 40.32 227.84 27.83 12.44 8.67 3.29 0.00 0.73 0.13 0.81 0.04 0.00 1.63 0.01 8.17 550.72 2094 39.43 225.57 27.51 12.40 8.66 3.17 0.00 0.67 0.12 0.76 0.04 0.00 1.61 0.01 8.17 550.72 2095 38.57 223.32 27.19 12.36 8.66 3.05 0.00 0.62 0.11 0.72 0.03 0.00 1.59 0.01 8.17 550.72 2096 37.72 221.10 26.87 12.31 8.65 2.93 0.00 0.57 0.10 0.69 0.03 0.00 1.57 0.01 8.17 550.72 2097 36.89 218.90 26.56 12.27 8.64 2.82 0.00 0.52 0.09 0.65 0.03 0.00 1.54 0.00 8.17 550.72 2098 36.08 216.72 26.24 12.23 8.64 2.72 0.00 0.48 0.08 0.62 0.03 0.00 1.52 0.00 8.17 550.72 2099 35.29 214.57 25.94 12.19 8.63 2.61 0.00 0.44 0.07 0.58 0.03 0.00 1.50 0.00 8.17 550.72