Process-oriented validation of 
coupled chemistry-climate models


 

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Agenda
Key Science Questions
      1. How will stratospheric ozone levels change as greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances change?
      2. How will stratospheric dynamics and transport change as greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances change?
      3. When will the ozone hole recover?
      4. Will ozone depletion worsen in the northern hemisphere?
      5. How will changing ozone levels impact climate change?
       
      Key Workshop Questions
       
      1. What are the key underlying processes that will impact stratospheric ozone change?
      2. How predictable is the evolution of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate?
                   In other words, what is the "signal" relative to the climate "noise"?
      1. How can we assess how well can CCMs represent these key processes?
      2. What are the key parameters that we need to measure?
        • for validating processes that impact ozone change
        • for assessing CCMs

    Sunday, 16 November 2003


17:30 - 19:00 Registration and poster set-up
19:00 Buffet at the Eibsee Hotel

Monday, 17 November 2003


08:30 - 09:00 Registration and poster set-up
09:00 - 09:10 Georgios Amanatidis
Session 1 - Overview and Introduction
Chair: Markus Rex

09:10 - 09:25 IPCC & WMO/UNEP assessment needs Neil Harris
09:25 - 09:55 Impact of climate change on the stratosphere Martin Dameris
09:55 - 10:25 Statistical methods Ben Santer
10:25 - 10:45 Coffee and poster set-up
10:45 - 11:15 GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC Steven Pawson
11:15 - 11:45 Current status of CCMs John Austin
11:45 - 12:15 Towards a process-oriented CCM validation Veronika Eyring
12:15 - 13:30 Lunch
Session 2a - Transport Characteristics
Chair: Eugene Rozanov
Rapporteur: Olaf Morgenstern

13:30 - 14:00 Overview on Transport Characteristics  Darryn Waugh 
14:00 - 14:15 Model grid zooming and the impact on tracer distributions in the Arctic lower stratosphere Bram Bregman
14:15 - 14:30 N2O and NOy  Randy Kawa 
14:30 - 14:45 Vortex edge development and erosion demonstrated by HALOE CH4 measurements Susan Strahan
14:45 - 15:00 Modelling the QBO effects on tracer distribution  Marco Giorgetta 
15:00 - 15:15 Coffee

 
Session 2b - Stratospheric Dynamics
Chair: Steven Pawson
Rapporteur: Volker Grewe

15:15 - 15:45 Overview on Stratospheric Dynamics  Ted Shepherd 
15:45 - 16:00 Interannual variations of polar ozone losses and the general circulation Toshihiko Hirooka
16:00 - 16:15 Planetary waves in observations and model results  Fabian Mager
16:15 - 16:30 Sensitivity of the middle atmosphere ozone depletion and increase in GHG with MAECHAM/CHEM Elisa Manzini
Chair: Steven Pawson & Eugene Rozanov

16:30 - 17:30 Poster Session 2a and 2b
2a-1 Ozone Seasonal Cycles Douglass, Anne; Kawa, Randy Jackman, Charles
2a-2 Quantification of horizontal 
transport processes in the Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with interactive chemistry
Krüger, Kirstin; Grenfell, John Lee; Mieth, Peter; Langematz Ulrike; Steil Benedikt
2a-3 Age-of-air simulation using the New-Dynamics Unified Model  Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Braesicke, Peter; Pyle, John; Johnson, Colin
2a-4 Tracer Mixing in the Extratropical Tropopause Region Wirth, Volkmar; Lopez Juan-Fran
2b-1 Sensitivity of dynamics and ozone to different representations of SSTs in the Unified Model Braesicke, Peter; Pyle, John A.
2b-2 Cold bias and its sensitivity to the dissipation scheme  Burkhardt, Ulrike; Becker, Erich
2b-3 Comparison of zonal large scale ozone variability derived from ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM and TOMS total ozone data  Erbertseder, Thilo; Eyring, Veronika; Bittner, Michael; Dameris, Martin 
2b-4 Climate Change in a Stratospheric Mechanistic Model Hampson, John; Bekki, Slimane; Hauchecorne, Alain; Keckhut, Philippe; Chanin, Marie-Lise 
2b-5 Variation in instantaneous lifetimes of ozone depleting substances, in relation to stratospheric circulation  Hoyle, Christopher; Rozanov E.; Egorova, T.; Peter T. 
2b-6 Relation between stratospheric ozone and climate deduced from total ozone data  Hudson, Robert; Andrade, Marcos; Follette, Melanie 
2b-7 Specified Ozone Production and Loss  Jackman, Charles; Kawa, Randy; Douglass, Anne; 
2b-8 Observational constraints on modeling the dynamic troposphere-stratosphere coupling  Judith Perlwitz 
2b-9 Signature of AO phase in the lower stratosphere ozone and temperature  Rozanov., Eugene; Egorova, Tatiana; Schmutz, Werner; Zubov, Vladimir 
2b-10 Short term ozone variability - Ozone miniholes  Stenke, Andrea; Grewe, Volker
2b-11 Tropical isolation in the middle stratosphere as shown by CLAES N2O measurements  Strahan, Susan; Douglass, Anne
17:30 - 18:15 Discussion for Session 2a and 2b
19:15 Dinner at the Eibsee Hotel

Tuesday, 18 November 2003

Session 3a - Stratospheric Chemistry & Aerosols
Chair: David Fahey
Rapporteur:  Slimane Bekki


09:00 - 09:30 Overview on Stratospheric Chemistry & Aerosols Ross Salawitch & Martyn Chipperfield
09:30 - 09:45 An approach to diagnose polar ozone loss in CCM calculations Markus Rex
09:45 - 10:00 Changes in southern hemisphere NO2: Comparison of measurements and model results Hamish Struthers
10:00 - 10:15 Quantification of the importance of denitrification in a future stratosphere  Stewart Davies
10:15 - 10:30 Coffee
Session 3b - Tropical Tropopause Layer including UTLS
Chair: Rolf Müller
Rapporteur: Volkmar Wirth

10:30 - 11:00 Overview on Tropical Tropopause Layer including UTLS Andrew Gettelman & John Pyle
11:00 - 11:15 Characteristic changes in water and clouds through the TTL Rob Mac Kenzie
11:15 - 11:30 Evaluation of the transport characteristics in extratropical UTLS in the NCAR Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model (WACCM) Douglas Kinnison
Chair: David Fahey and Rolf Müller

11:30 - 12:15 Poster Session 3a and 3b
3a-1 The interactive chemistry climate model MAECHAM4-CHEM, longterm simulations for near past, present and near future Bruehl, Christoph; Steil, Benedikt; Manzini, Elisa 
3a-2 Polar stratospheric cloud simulations with ECHAM 5  Buchholz, Joachim; Meilinger, Stefanie; Lelieveld, Jos 
3a-3 Atmospheric Chemistry in the Community Atmosphere Model  Philip Cameron-Smith (LLNL), Doug Rotman (LLNL),  Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), Stacy Walters (NCAR), John Taylor (ANL), Peter Gleckler (LLNL)
3a-4 Chemistry Climate interactions after large volcanic eruptions I Graf Hans_F.; Timmreck Claudia; Li Qian Thomas; Manu Anna 
3a-5 Lagrangian CTM studies of future polar vortex structure and ozone loss Lemmen, Carsten; Guenther, Gebhard; Mager, Fabian; Dameris, Martin; Riese, Martin; Mueller, Rolf 
3a-6 Impact of climate and emission changes on stratospheric sulphuric acid aerosols Pitari, Giovanni; Mancini, Eva 
3a-7 Validation of a nudged 3-D circulation model including full stratospheric chemistry with satellite data Ruhnke, Roland; Reddmann, Thomas; Kouker, Wolfgang 
3a-8 The solar cycle variation of chemical species in the middle atmosphere studied with a 3-D chemistry-climate model  SEKIYAMA, Thomas; SHIBATA, Kiyotaka; DEUSHI, Makoto; ORITO, Kohtaro; KODERA, Kunihiko 
3a-9 Stratospheric Bromine Chemistry Sinnhuber, Bjoern-Martin; Sinnhuber, Miriam 
3a-10 Evaluation of stratospheric temperature fidelity using an NCEP climatology Strahan, Susan; Douglass, Anne
3a-11 Simulation of Pinatubo aerosols and its impact on stratospheric chemistry by using a CCSR/NIES AGCM TAKIGAWA, Masayuki; TAKAHASHI, Masaaki; AKIYOSHI, Hideharu; 
3a-12 The effects of non-orographic GWD scheme and radiation from large SZA on the Antarctic ozone hole Tatsuya, Nagashima; Masaaki, Takahashi; Hideharu, Akiyoshi; Masayuki, Takigawa 
3a-13 Effects of stratospheric water vapour on O3 depletion: A coupled chemistry-climate model study  Tian Wenshou; Chipperfield Martyn 
3a-14 Chemistry Climate interactions after large volcanic eruptions II Timmreck, Claudia 
3a-15 A new treatment of PSCs for Chemistry-Climate Models  van den Broek, Miranda; Bregman, Bram 
3b-1 Ozone production and loss in the UTLS region  Isaksen, Ivar; Gauss, Michael 
3b-2 A climatology of the northern hemisphere winter tropopause in comparison of ECMWF analyses and the DLR/E39C general circulation model  Kouker, Wolfgang; Reddmann, Thomas; Ruhnke, Roland; Schnadt, Christine; Dameris, Martin 
3b-3 Using the Tropopause Height for Model Evaluation and Detection of Climate Change  Sausen, Robert; Santer, B.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.; Taylor, K.E.; Boyle, J.S.; Brüggemann, W.; Meehl, G.A.; Roeckner, E.; Dameris, M.; Schnadt, C.; Eyring, V.; Grewe, V.; Ponater, M.
12:15 - 12:45 Discussion for Session 3a and 3b
12:45 - 14:00 Lunch
Session 4a - Tropospheric Forcing
Chair: Hans Graf
Rapporteur: Kirstin Krüger

14:00 - 14:30 Overview on Role of the Troposphere Paul Newman
14:30 - 14:45 Fingerprinting the ozone signatures of climate patterns Yvan Orsolini
14:45 - 15:00 Relation between stratospheric ozone and climate deduced from total ozone data Robert Hudson 
15:00 - 15:15 Dynamical control of ozone transport and ozone chemistry from satellite observations and CCMs Mark Weber
15:15 - 15:45 Coffee
Session 4b - Radiative Transfer & Balance
Chair: Robert Sausen
Rapporteur:  Kleareti Tourpali

15:45 - 16:15 Overview on Radiative Transfer and Balance Michael Prather & Piers Forster 
16:15 - 16:30 Interactive photolysis calculations in the GCM ECHAM: Comparison with observations near the surface  Christoph Brühl 
16:30 - 16:45 The Radiation Balance of the TTL  Andrew Gettelman 
Chair: Hans Graf & Robert Sausen

16:45 - 17:30 Poster Session 4a and 4b
4a-1 The interactive chemistry climate model MAECHAM4-CHEM, longterm simulations for near past, present and near future (part 2)  Bruehl, Christoph; Steil, Benedikt; Manzini, Elisa 
4a-2 North Atlantic Oscillation changes and stratospheric ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere in a chemistry-climate model  Schnadt, Christina; Dameris, Martin 
4a-3 Simulation of the separate climate effects of stratospheric and tropsopheric CO2 doubling  Siegmund, Peter; Sigmond, Micheal Kelder, Hennie 
4a-4 Column ozone and the residual circulation Wohltmann, Ingo; Rex, Markus Eyring, Veronika
4b-1 PFCs and UTLS temperatures  Forster, Piers 
4b-2 Clouds and actinic Flux - first results of INSPECTRO  Scheirer, Ronald; Mayer, Bernhard
4b-3 A comparison of model-simulated trends in stratospheric temperatures  Shine, Keith; Forster, Piers + lots more 
17:30 - 18:00 Discussion for Session 4a and 4b 
19:00 Dinner at the Eibsee Alm (Please bring sturdy shoes!) 

Wednesday, 19 November 2003

Session 5 - Working Groups
Chair: Chairs from Sessions 2 - 4


09:00 - 09:30 Organisation of Working Groups
09:30 - 12:00 Working Group Meetings
10:30 - 11:00 Coffee
12:00 - 13:15 Lunch
Session 6 - Discussion and Conclusions
Chair: Neil Harris

13:15 - 14:30 Reports of the rapporteurs from all working groups
14:30 - 16:00 Final Discussion