• MRInew (REF1, nyears=25, 1980-2004)
• ULAQnew (REF2, nyears=91, 1960-2050)
• E39CA (REF1, nyears=20, 1980-1999); Note: E39C-ATTILA (E39CA) files not yet at BADC, results preliminary.
  

Figure 1. Climatological mean temperature 
biases for 60°-90°N (upper panels) and 
60°-90°S (lower panels) for the winter (left) 
and spring seasons (right). The climatological 
means for the CCMs, ERA-40 and NCEP 
data from 1980 to 1999 and for UKMO from 
1992 to 2001 are included. Biases are 
calculated relative to ERA-40 re-analyses. 
The grey area shows ERA-40 plus and 
minus 1 standard deviation (s) about the 
climatological mean. 

Note: The multi-model mean is calculated from 
the same CCMs than in Eyring et al., 2006.

Figure 1b. Global annual mean temperatures

Figure 2. Descent of the zero zonal mean 
wind lines at 60°S based on the climatological 
mean annual cycle calculated from the monthly 
mean zonal mean winds. The grey area indicates 
the variation of the timing in the transition from 
westerlies to easterlies for ERA-40 due to a 
plus or minus one interannual standard deviation 
in the mean annual cycle. Tick marks refer to 
the first of the month and climatological 
means are calculated as in Figure 1.

Preliminary

Figure 3. Upper panels: Heat fluxes (v'T') at
100 hPa (averaged over 40°N to 80°N
for January and February) versus temperatures at
50 hPa (averaged over 60°N to 90°N for
February and March). Shown are the twenty
years from 1980 to 1999 for each model
simulation compared to observations from
ERA-40 re-analyses. Lower panels: Same for
southern hemisphere, but  heat fluxes (v'T')
at 100 hPa averaged over 40°S to 80°S
for July and August versus temperatures at
50 hPa averaged over 60°S to 90°S for
August and September.

New models not yet included

Figure 4. Modeled and observed time series of 
monthly-mean temperature anomalies at 50 hPa 
from the CCMs, ERA-40 re-analyses and 
RATPAC. The temperature anomalies are 
calculated with respect to a mean reference 
period between 1980 and 1989 using three-month 
averages for February to April in the polar northern 
hemisphere (60°-90°N, upper panel), September 
to November in the polar southern hemisphere 
(60°-90°S, middle panel) and annual averages for 
the global anomalies (lower panel). For the polar 
plots a three year smoothing window has been 
applied. AMTRAC, E39C, MAECHAM4CHEM, 
MRI, SOCOL, ULAQ and UMETRAC are shown 
with dashed lines, all others CCMs with solid lines. 
A linear temperature trend in K/decade is calculated 
for each model using data between 1980 and 1999. 
The temperature trend is given next to the name of 
each participating model.

Figure 5. Climatological zonal-mean CH4 mixing 
ratios from the CCMs and HALOE in ppmv. 
Upper panels (a-c): Vertical profiles at 80°N in 
March (left), 0° in March (middle) and 80°S in 
October (right). Lower panels (d,e): Latitudinal 
profiles at 50 hPa in March (left) and October (right). 
The grey area shows HALOE plus and minus 1 
standard deviation (s) about the climatological 
zonal mean. 

Figure 6. As in Figure 5, but for H₂O in ppmv.

Figure 7. Seasonal variation of climatological means 
at 100 hPa at the equator for temperature (left panel) 
and water vapor (right panel). Modeled fields for the 
1990s are compared to the 1991-2002 HALOE 
water vapor climatology and the 1992-2001 
temperature climatology from UKMO and ERA-40.

Figure 8.  Time-height sections of water vapor
mixing ratio shown as the deviation (in parts per
million by volume) from the time-mean profile,
averaged between 10°S and 10°N
(‘tape recorder’) for all CCMs and HALOE
data. Two consecutive cycles are shown.

Figure 10. Mean age of air at (a) 0.5, (b) 10, 
and (c) 50 hPa. Symbols correspond to 
observations, see text for details. 

Figure 11.  As in Figure 5, but for HCl in ppbv and vertical profiles are shown at (a) 80°N in April (b) 0° in April and (c) 80°S in November. Lower panels show latitudinal profiles at 50 hPa in (d) April and (e) November.

Figure 12. Left: Climatological mean vertical profiles (1990 to 1999) at 80°S in November for Cl_y in ppbv. Right: Time series of October mean Antarctic Cl_y at 80°S from CCM model simulations. Estimates of Cl_y from HALOE HCl measurements in 1992 [Douglass et al., 1995; Santee et al., 1996] and Aura MLS HCl in 2005 [M. Santee, pers. communication] are shown in addition.

Figure 13.  As in Figure 5, but for O₃ in ppmv.

Figure 15: Left panels: (a) seasonal (February to April) total column ozone anomalies for the Arctic (60^oN-90^oN), (b) seasonal (September to November) total column ozone anomalies for the Antarctic (90^oS-60^oS), and (c) annual total column ozone anomalies sets for the whole globe (90^oS-90^oN) from CCMs and four observational data sets. The CCM results are shown with colored lines while the mean and range of the four observational data sets are shown as a thick black line and grey shaded area respectively. The anomalies are calculated with the method described in Appendix A. The seasonal anomaly time series shown in panel (a) and (b) have been smoothed by applying a 1:2:1 filter iteratively five times. The filter width is reduced to one at the ends of the time series. The annual global anomalies shown in panel (c) are unsmoothed. Right panels: detrended mean annual cycles for each model (1980 to 1989) and the mean and range of the observations.