Home | The mission | Observations | News | Links | Data |
Tropopause PV features have been regularly linked to HIW events such as heavy precipitation (e.g., Martius et al., 2006; Chaboureau and Claud, 2006). An analysis of high-resolution ensemble forecasts from the DWD COSMO-DE system showed that the synoptic structure was often the dominant source of ensemble spread (Keil et al. 2013). However the same study showed that in some cases, uncertainty in local small-scale processes can play an equally large role. Chaboureau et al. (2012) showed that intense Mediterranean cyclone forced by combination of large scale ascent and surface-driven instability.
During NAWDEX, precursors of high impact weather events will be identified and their errors and uncertainty as represented in the NWP analysis ensemble will be evaluated using the aircraft observations. Ensemble forecasts will be used to relate these errors to HIW events downstream. Ground-based observations will provide detailed verification of the physical processes linking the precursors at the level of the Rossby waveguide to local extremes in wind and precipitation.
An important factor for achieving this objective will be coordinate the aircraft observations planned here with surface and lower tropospheric observations in the UK, France and other countries. An overview of these activities is provided in the international NAWDEX science plan.
Impacts of tropopause waveguide uncertainty on HIW events | |
---|---|
Research Questions |
|
Planned Observations | HALO and Falcon |
Obsevation strategy |
|
Schematic flight plan: |
NAWDEX goals: